The TDI industry structure stable. After the withdrawal of some foreign production capacity, it entered a state of tight balance. Considering that most of the existing equipment at home and abroad are old equipment, the pressure for follow-up maintenance is high, and the new The increase in production capacity is lagging behind, and TDI supply will remain tight in the medium term.
As an important organic chemical material, TDI has basically entered a mature stage. From the perspective of future trends, on the supply side, global small-scale installations are transforming into large-scale installations, while large-scale installations are more complex in terms of process control and start-up stability; from the demand side, TDI downstream docks with real estate, automobiles and other fields, and global consumption is relatively stable. . Since 2007, global production capacity has been continuously transferred to China. China has become the world’s largest producer and consumer, and has transformed from a net importer into an important global exporter.
TDI production capacity is highly concentrated and supply is facing contraction in the medium term. The top ten TDI companies in the world account for 84% of the production capacity, while domestic production capacity is concentrated in six companies. The overall industry pattern is stable, and the capacity utilization rate has remained above 80% for a long time. Due to the complexity of the elimination of backward production capacity abroad and the commissioning of replacement large-scale equipment, the short-term TDI supply may continue to fluctuate. In addition, domestic and foreign devices have entered the maintenance period one after another, and combined with the lag in the commissioning of Saudi Arabia’s 200,000-ton device and Wanhua’s 300,000-ton device, we judge that TDI supply will still face contraction in the medium term.
my country has completed the transformation from a net importer of TDI to a net exporter, and exports are still expected to rise in the future. Affected by the shutdown of foreign equipment for maintenance, my country’s TDI exports have surged since 2016, with the annual export growth reaching 114.53%. In January 2017, the export growth reached 234%, and import and export prices also increased by more than 90%. Considering that all 370,000 tons of domestic equipment are old equipment before 2010, subsequent maintenance pressure is high, and domestic limited production capacity may not be able to meet strong foreign demand, and the shortage of supply may drive prices up again.
The decline in raw material prices is expected to increase the spread. At present, the price center of TDI has been rising overall. However, toluene (38%), which accounts for the largest proportion of raw material costs, has begun to fall due to the decline in oil prices. Nitric acid (13%) has also been unable to continue to rise after coal prices stabilized. Therefore, the pressure on the cost side of TDI has been alleviated. , the contraction of TDI supply is expected to drive the price difference to expand, and the profits of related companies are expected to continue to improve.
Foreign TDI de -production capacity leads to a tight balance between supply and demand, TDI’s price center is up, and future existing capacity will enter the maintenance, new capacity will not be launched as expected. It will be tight, and prices and spreads are still expected to continue to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to Cangzhou Dahua, which has a domestic TDI production capacity of 150,000 tons.
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