After nearly a decade of bear market, the global silicone industry has regained its vitality. As of last week, the mainstream transaction price in the organic silicon market was 19,800-20,300 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 8.1% compared with 18,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of last month. On March 6, the price of organic silicon continued to rise by 1,000 yuan to 21,300 yuan/ton.
Industry insiders believe that the price increase of organic silicon is firstly caused by the completion of overcapacity reduction in the industry, and secondly by the warming of downstream demand. In addition, factors such as rising raw material prices and environmental protection production restrictions will provide support for the price of organic silicon in the future. .
Asamajorcountryinthesiliconindustry,mycountry’sproductionoforganicsiliconmonomersaccountsforapproximately70%oftheworld’stotal.Duetosluggishdemandandsevereovercapacity,thedomesticsiliconeindustry’sproductioncapacitybasicallystoppedexpandingafter2014.Startingfrom2015,itenteredtheproductioncapacityclearancephase,andlastyearthesupplyanddemandpatternreversed.
AccordingtoIndustrialSecuritiescomprehensivestatistics,asoftheendof2016,theactualoutputoforganicsiliconinthecountrywas1.7milliontons.,theindustry’soperatingrateincreasedbyabout10percentagepointsyear-on-year.Atthesametime,industryconcentrationhasalsoincreased,withthetopfivecompanies’productioncapacitysharerisingto65%.Currently,mycountry’sorganicsiliconmonomerproductioncapacityis2.855milliontons,andtheeffectiveproductioncapacityis2.3milliontons.
Oldproductioncapacityhasbeenwithdrawn,butnewproductioncapacitylackssupplementation.Lastyear,exceptforSichuanSiliconPeak’s100,000-tontechnicaltransformationandthestartoftrialproduction,therewasnonewproductioncapacityintheindustry.
TianfengSecuritiesjudgedthatenvironmentalprotectionwillcontinuetomaintainahigh-pressuresituationin2017.Thecurrentindustryoperatingrateisatarelativelyhighlevelof76%,anditwillbedifficultforsubsequentindustriestoincreasetheoperatingrate.
Inadditiontochangesonthesupplyside,downstreamconsumptionisalsoshowingsignsofwarmth.
AfterenteringMarch,thedownstreammarketoforganicsiliconhasgraduallywarmedup,andpurchaseshaveincreased.Currently,themainstreamtransactionpriceof107rubbermarketisaround20,500-21,000yuan/ton,amonth-on-monthincreaseof5.12%;themainstreamtransactionpriceofrawrubberincreasedby7.5%month-on-month.
Themosteye-catchingperformancelastweekwasundoubtedlytheimportedsiliconeoilmarket,duetotheMarchCorningdevicemaintenance,andthereductionofinstallationsinFebruarycausedthemarketpricetorisesteadily,andmanyagentsevenquotedhighpricesofmorethan23,000yuan/ton.
Withtherecoveryofglobalrealestate,thedemandforsiliconedownstreamincludingsiliconerubber(roomtemperatureglueandhightemperatureglue),siliconeoil,etc.isgrowingrapidly.Atpresent,theeffectivedomesticproductioncapacityofsiliconeDMCis1.3milliontons,andtheconsumptionandexportvolumeare1.25milliontons.Consideringthatdomesticlarge-scaleequipmentwillundergointensivemaintenancefromMarchtoJune,theindustryexpectsthatsiliconepriceswillcontinuetoriserapidly.
AccordingtoTianfengSecurities’prediction,theindustry’sannualdemandgrowthratewillbe4%inthefuture.90%ofmycountry’ssiliconeproductsaredigestedthroughthedomesticmarket,mainlyintheconstruction,automobileandelectronicindustries.Thelattertwoareexpectedtomaintainmedium-to-lowgrowth.
Fromashort-termmarketperspective,BaichuanInformationbelievesthatthecurrentequipmentstart-upofdomesticenterpriseshasimproved,buttheordersowedbyfactoriesintheearlystagearestillbeingissued,andthemarketsupplywillcontinuetobetight.Inthemediumtolongterm,astheoperatingloadincreasessignificantly,priceincreasesmaybelimited.
(Original title: Supply and demand pattern reverses, silicone prices continue to rise)
(Editor: DF309)
