Compared with the crazy rise of titanium dioxide and TDI, the ethylene glycol market this year has performed poorly. Stalemate and downturn have become the key words for the current operation of the ethylene glycol market. The annual average price of ethylene glycol in the East China market in 2015 was 6,045 yuan/ton, and the average annual price in 2014 was 6,840 yuan/ton. However, from January to February this year, the average market price of ethylene glycol was less than 5,000 yuan/ton. After the end of February, the market It has been fluctuating in a narrow range between 5,000-6,000 yuan/ton. The lack of momentum when it rises to 6,000 yuan/ton and the resistance to the decline of 5,000 yuan/ton have caused many merchants to lament the difficulty of trading. Although there have been many good times here, the market is always rising, allowing people to calm down again when they see some hope. It’s true that I treat you like first love, but you abuse me thousands of times! p>
It seems that last week, the overall domestic ethylene glycol market atmosphere was mainly fluctuating and strengthening, but the overall market still gave people a feeling of stalemate. According to monitoring data, the average ex-factory price of ethylene glycol by domestic companies at the beginning of last week was 5,356 yuan/ton, and as of the weekend, the average price was 5,361 yuan/ton. The overall rise in the ethylene glycol market during the week was not firm, the focus of negotiations in the South China market was temporarily stable, and the transaction performance was mediocre. The mainstream negotiations are around 5,650 yuan/ton (shell delivered); 5,500 yuan/ton (coal delivered). The East China market rose slightly, the transaction volume was acceptable, and the spot price was negotiated at around 5,380 yuan/ton.
The main reason for the rise in the ethylene glycol market last week was the approval of the listing of ethylene glycol futures products. Dalian Commodity Exchange announced on October 16 that the China Securities Regulatory Commission had approved The project application for ethylene glycol futures means that ethylene glycol futures is one step closer to its official listing. Under the influence of this good news, the ethylene glycol market performed very excitedly, with prices rising rapidly on the 17th. But since then, the trend has been silent again, maintaining an embarrassing dilemma. As a result, people’s newly established confidence was once again suppressed, and the market’s worries were ignited again. Merchants who had previously been optimistic about the situation gradually changed their attitude to a conservative attitude, and everyone expressed their helplessness about the market trend of ethylene glycol.
Oil prices are also a reason to support the ethylene glycol market. International oil prices fell slightly after rising last week. Earlier, US crude oil December futures once hit a 15-month high of 52.22 US dollars per barrel, due to the unexpected large drop in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which boosted oil prices; however, U.S. oil subsequently fell back from highs, and Russia’s remarks that it may continue to increase production caused some bulls to take profits and wait and see what oil-producing countries will do. Further actions to limit production, the surge in U.S. drilling rigs limited the rise in oil prices, and the strength of the U.S. dollar also limited the upside of oil prices. U.S. oil closed at an integer mark of $51/barrel over the weekend, and Brent oil closed at $51.92/barrel. The crude oil market as a whole continues to be strong and has some support for the ethylene glycol market, but there is a risk of a correction this week. Data released by the EIA showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 5.3 million barrels in the week ended October 14. Last week, the Saudi Oil Minister, who helped oil prices rise further, made positive statements on production cuts. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a weekly report on Friday (October 21) saying that as U.S. oil held steady above the $50/barrel mark, hedge funds and other fund managers increased their holdings of U.S. crude oil for four consecutive weeks. Net long positions in futures and options rose to the highest level since July 2014. But the attitude of Russian oil producers has worried the market. U.S. oil drilling data continues to increase. Based on comprehensive analysis, the market is expected to fall this week.
The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are in a virtuous cycle. Last week, the start-up load of ethylene glycol was around 76%, which was slightly lower than the previous period. Anhui Huaihua, Inner Mongolia Tongliao, and Henan Coal Chemical ( Puyang) and Henan Coal Chemical (Xinxiang) are still at a standstill. Although port inventories have increased, the positive base is still low. As of last Thursday, the inventory statistics in the main MEG reservoir area in East China were 561,400 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous week’s inventory. On the downstream side, polyester production has started steadily and production and sales have been smooth, and the demand for ethylene glycol can still be maintained.
According to customs statistics, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol from January to August 2016 was 4807393883 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 17.90%, and the import amount was 3071087330 US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 17.90%. A year-on-year decrease of 39.88%. From January to August 2016, the cumulative export volume of ethylene glycol was 9,696,412 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 48.65%, and the export value was US$14,585,104, a year-on-year decrease of 43.22%.
It can be seen from the above data analysis that compared with the same period last year, my country’s total import and export volume of ethylene glycol decreased from January to August 2016. Judging from import data, my country’s dependence on foreign imports of ethylene glycol has always been high. However, in the past two years, the coal-to-ethylene glycol process has been continuously improved. Most domestic companies have added coal-to-ethylene glycol projects. It is understood that by 2020, China A total of 41 coal-to-ethylene glycol projects will be built, with a total production capacity of 10.26 million tons. The centralized production of coal-based ethylene glycol has reduced domestic dependence on imported ethylene glycol. In addition, 900,000 tons of new polyester production capacity was put on the market in the first half of this year, and demand increased, resulting in a sharp decline in ethylene glycol imports.
From the perspective of export data, the export of ethylene glycol has also decreased. Since last year, there has been a lot of new domestic ethylene glycol production capacity, but the domestic market demand has been flat, making ethylene glycol facing The embarrassing situation of overcapacity. As downstream demand is difficult to consume a large amount of domestic production capacity, coupled with the reduction in exports, and there will still be a lot of new production capacity launched in the later period, the contradiction between domestic oversupply of ethylene glycol will intensify, and the market will have difficulty moving forward in the future.
On the whole, there are both the good performance of peripheral crude oil as support and the stable downstream polyester work guarantee, but these favorable factors still cannot allow ethylene glycol to form The potential of “starting a prairie fire”. Moreover, the current tepid situation of ethylene glycol is unlikely to change in the short term. At present, there are many new domestic production capacities, and the problem of overcapacity will be highlighted. It is difficult to maintain an optimistic attitude in future expectations. In the future, we need to pay further attention to the upstream and downstream conditions for ethylene glycol. The influence of trend
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