In March 2017, the 240,000-ton ethylene glycol project of Inner Mongolia Yigao Coal Chemical Industry was about to start construction, and the 240,000-ton ethylene glycol project of Shandong Lihuayi Group announced the start of construction. 4 In August, Xinjiang Shengwo Energy’s 400,000-ton ethylene glycol project started construction, and Hubei Sanning Chemical’s 600,000-ton project also announced that it would start construction within the year…
As one of the raw materials for polyester, ethylene glycol has a considerable demand market in China. According to statistics from Chemical Industry Online, my country’s ethylene glycol production capacity reached about 9 million tons in 2016, accounting for about 27% of the world. Among them, coal-based ethylene glycol was 2.9 million tons, accounting for 32%. The output was 5.1 million tons, and the apparent consumption reached 12.7 million tons. million tons, consumption has maintained a stable growth rate of about 9% in the past ten years, while the self-sufficiency rate is only about 40%, and there is still a huge market gap.
As a product that has long relied on large amounts of imports, ethylene glycol imports have maintained an average annual growth rate of 5% in the past few years. Due to the state’s environmental protection controls on the use of coal, the development of coal into coal chemical industry has great potential. As the coal-to-ethylene glycol process becomes increasingly mature and relies on convenient raw materials, domestic ethylene glycol projects are ushering in a boom. .
In 2016, my country’s new production capacity was approximately 450,000 tons, including 200,000 tons from Yangmei Group Shouyang Chemical, 200,000 tons from Yongjin Chemical, and 50,000 tons from Xinjiang Tianye. Most of them belong to coal-to-ethylene glycol projects. Although affected by the low oil prices in 2015, the new production capacity in 2016 was only more than a quarter of that in 2015. However, also benefiting from the rebound in oil prices in 2016, the overall ethylene glycol market showed an upward trend, and the increase continued until 2017. In February, it reached a new high since September 2013. It can be expected that there will still be a lot of new production capacity in 2017, and the total production capacity may reach 10 million tons.
According to statistics, the total number of ethylene glycol projects planned to be built in my country in recent years is about 22 million tons, most of which are coal-to-ethylene glycol projects, among which projects have been completed and are waiting to be put into operation. A total of 1.4 million tons, the rest are under construction or in the preparatory stage. Since 2015, coal-to-ethylene glycol projects have blossomed everywhere, and the production capacity of the projects started in the past two years has exceeded 5 million tons. It is conceivable that my country’s ethylene glycol production capacity will further increase significantly by 2020.
There are pros and cons to launching a large number of ethylene glycol projects, but it seems that the pros currently outweigh the cons. In October 2016, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s ethylene glycol futures project application. This news is good for the ethylene glycol market, but downstream polyester companies have questioned the production quality. After all, there are still shortcomings in the use of coal-to-ethylene glycol in the current polyester production process. However, with the full release of coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity, market competition will promote companies to control quality and standards, establish a sound supervision system, and the polyester industry’s recognition of coal-to-ethylene glycol is gradually increasing.
The release of ethylene glycol production capacity in the past two years can be seen in last year’s import data. In 2016, the import volume was only 7.57 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. This is my country’s second The first decline in the history of glycol imports in the past ten years is also an intuitive reflection of the growth in my country’s ethylene glycol production capacity. Ethylene glycol in the Middle East is not only the main source of my country’s imports but also the biggest competitor for my country’s future development of ethylene glycol.
In short, the current large-scale start-up of coal-to-ethylene glycol is advantageous. Although the current actual output of coal-to-ethylene glycol is low, it is also growing steadily, and the prospects are still Brighter. What needs to be vigilant is that after 2020, with the substantial growth of my country’s ethylene glycol production capacity, the problem of overcapacity should be considered for projects that are still under planning.
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