With the continuous development of the global economy, the gradual deepening of the energy crisis and the increasing awareness of environmental protection, the power battery industry as a new energy and environmentally friendly and low-carbon power battery industry has developed rapidly, and lithium-ion batteries have become The mainstream development direction of many power batteries [1]. With the continuous breakthroughs in materials and battery performance technology and the gradual reduction of production costs, the advantages of lithium-ion batteries, such as light weight, long cruising range, wide application range, high energy density and high output power, will be gradually strengthened and used as the main power battery. Development, is the main type of power battery for new energy vehicles today [2]. Currently, the cathode materials for lithium-ion power batteries used industrially at home and abroad include lithium iron phosphate (hereinafter referred to as LFP), lithium manganate, ternary (lithium nickel cobalt manganate, lithium nickel cobalt aluminate), etc. [3, 4]. Among them, lithium iron phosphate has grown rapidly in China due to its high safety and stability, long cycle life and lower cost advantages [5-9]. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and power batteries, recent In the past few years, the technology and technology of the lithium iron phosphate material industry have continued to mature, and homogeneous competition has become more prominent. Based on rapid technological iteration and industrial ecological cooperation, the lithium iron phosphate market has accelerated its steady growth and concentrated on leading enterprises, and the industry concentration has further increased. The inherent cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate has a strong survival space in the cost-sensitive market. The addition of some new technology solutions can solve the performance shortcomings to a certain extent. In the past year, demand in the lithium iron phosphate industry chain has picked up, and the supply and demand pattern has improved. The recovery of lithium iron phosphate’s position in the power battery market will be further strengthened.
Application fields of lithium iron phosphate batteries
Lithium iron phosphate batteries Current application fields include new energy vehicles, energy storage, 5G base stations, two-wheeled vehicles, heavy trucks, electric ships and other fields. Among them, new energy vehicles account for the largest proportion of applications, including new energy passenger cars, new energy buses and new energy vehicles. Special-purpose vehicles; the current use of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the energy storage field accounts for more than 94%, including new batteries and ladder batteries, which are mainly used in UPS, backup power supply, communication energy storage and other fields; the future development of the electric ship market is expected to be good, and this field Currently, all applications are lithium iron phosphate batteries; lithium iron phosphate batteries have also begun to be used in the two-wheeler battery replacement market. As the market begins to move further away from policy-based policies and towards true marketization, opportunities for lithium iron phosphate batteries will also further open up.
3 Application prospects of lithium iron phosphate batteries
3.1 Application prospects in the field of new energy vehicles
Since 2020, the lithium iron phosphate battery market has begun to pick up. Entering a new growth cycle, early last year Tesla cooperated with CATL to enter the “cobalt-free battery”, allowing lithium iron phosphate batteries to return to the center of the stage again. Tesla electric vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries undoubtedly quickly kicked off the strong return of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the power battery market. Driven by the substantial growth in sales of domestic Model 3, BYD Han EV, Hongguang MINI EV and other models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, including many battery companies such as CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Ruipu Energy, Penghui Energy, etc. The installed capacity of LFP batteries in the passenger car market has increased significantly. According to industry statistics, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery shipments in total power battery shipments has rebounded from 28% in 2019 to about 35-40% in 2020.
At the beginning of the new year of 2021, the latest industry trends indicate that LFP batteries will set off a wave in the passenger car field in 2021. From an industrial policy perspective, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be officially implemented in early 2021, giving OEMs a clear direction in planning new energy models. From the perspective of the general trend, new energy vehicles have completed the transformation from an industrial development model driven by national policies to a development model driven by market demand. In 2021, the subsidy standards for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% based on 2020. The implementation of the subsidy policy and the elimination of the subsidy transition period will help promote the normal growth of the annual production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021. From the perspective of industrial layout, leading battery companies such as CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan High-tech are actively increasing the capacity construction of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The CTP batteries and blade batteries based on lithium iron phosphate solutions launched by CATL and BYD have already received Recognized by the market, it is currently actively expanding its lithium iron phosphate battery production capacity. In addition, Guoxuan Hi-Tech has also made technological upgrades to its LFP battery products, recently launching the latest 210Wh/Kg lithium iron phosphate soft-pack battery cells and JTM technology. All major mainstream battery companies are significantly expanding LFP battery production capacity and carrying out product upgrades, and are seizing market opportunities in LFP battery matching for passenger cars in 2021. Overall, as major passenger car OEMs accelerate the launch of LFP models and battery companies further reduce manufacturing costs, the competitive advantage of LFP batteries in the passenger car field will be further highlighted, and the ranking of power battery installed capacity in the domestic passenger car field will also increase. There will be a new round of adjustments.
In order to estimate the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in my country from 2021 to 2025, we make the following assumptions: First, my country’s new energy vehicle production and sales will maintain steady growth from 2021 to 2023; from 2024 to 2025, high-level automatic The same effect of driving and new energy vehicles is significantly reflected. By 2025, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5.5 million units, and when including commercial vehicles and special vehicles, the number will be close to 6 million units, basically realizing the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035&nb��The increase in discharge rate makes the ship’s startup acceleration and power control better, and it also has the technical conditions for promotion and application on ships. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have become the best choice for ship power batteries at this stage due to their high safety, long life, low cost, balanced performance and other advantages.
As environmental protection policies become increasingly strict and lithium battery technology continues to improve, it is expected that ship electrification will enter a period of rapid development in the next few years, and pure electric ships will become the mainstream direction of development. The average lithium battery capacity of a new energy vehicle is 40-50 kWh, while the battery capacity of a luxury electric cruise ship is about 3,000 kWh. It is expected that the global electric ship market will reach more than 45 billion yuan in 2025, and the market prospects are very broad. The demand for lithium batteries brought about by the electrification of ships will enter a period of rapid growth. It is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries by electric ships will exceed 6GWh in 2025.
4 Production and sales, market concentration and price trends of lithium iron phosphate materials
Under the counterattack trend of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the production and sales, market concentration and market concentration of lithium iron phosphate materials Degrees and prices have also changed accordingly. Judging from production and sales data, the output remained at 70,000-80,000 tons from 2017 to 2018. The increase in demand in the energy storage field in 2019 led to the total output increasing to 90,000-100,000 tons. In 2020, due to strong demand in the second half of the year, iron phosphate
Lithium production increased to 140,000 tons. In 2021, demand from new energy vehicles, heavy trucks, ships, electrochemical energy storage and other fields will be released together. It is estimated that the demand for lithium iron phosphate materials this year will reach about 250,000 tons. In terms of market concentration, the lithium iron phosphate battery market is highly concentrated in 2020, with several leading companies occupying about 80%-90% of the market share. From a price perspective, due to the short-term tight supply and demand caused by the increase in lithium iron phosphate battery shipments, the price of lithium iron phosphate materials began to increase in early November 2020. At the beginning of 2021, the price of mainstream lithium iron phosphate materials was 40,000-43,000 yuan/ The price of lithium iron phosphate materials for energy storage is about 35,000-38,000 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate materials for power is about 43,000 yuan/ton. However, considering that the industry’s total lithium iron phosphate material production capacity is not small, and is less affected by upstream mineral futures, it is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate materials will maintain stable operation after a slight increase in 2021.
5 New development direction of lithium iron phosphate battery companies
Lithium iron phosphate batteries will have larger-scale applications after 2021. Lithium iron phosphate battery companies are developing new products, operations, Technology, layout and other aspects will show the following changes: battery-side sales will be transferred to operations, and companies will transform the sales model to leasing operations, which will directly improve the economics of the entire life cycle of iron lithium batteries
and improve products Gross profit margin; in downstream markets such as energy storage and ships, the sales link shows large demand fluctuations, a large number of projects, but a low single purchase volume. The demand for generalization of prismatic iron lithium batteries has increased, especially in communication energy storage and industrial storage. In the energy sector, modularization will help accelerate the application speed of downstream enterprises; under the trend of lowering the technical threshold of the iron lithium battery market, expanding market scale, and richer application scenarios, product models will gradually be unified, and sales prices will be further reduced. Enterprises Production efficiency and production scale have been further improved; since electricity costs account for a relatively high proportion of the production cost of lithium iron phosphate materials, as companies such as CATL and BYD build factories in Chengdu, Chongqing and Guanzhong, lithium iron material companies can expand their operations in various places. Find a balance point suitable for your own development based on differences in electricity prices. At present, my country’s Chengdu, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia regions have low electricity prices and a complete chemical raw material base, which can support enterprises to undertake part of the transfer of production capacity. </p
