After 34 trading days of adjustment, the A-share market bottomed out at 14:31 on January 16, and gradually got better after entering February. As of the close of trading on February 24, the cumulative gains of the major indexes this month were between 3% and 4%. Industry insiders believe that in view of the large variables in the remaining two trading days of February, if the stock market is “budding” in February, then the market is expected to “fully bloom” in March, and investors can pay attention to dips. Opportunities for revaluation of stocks with new economic themes.
In February, global stock markets performed well across the board and the trend of A-shares was relatively stable
Statistics show that as of the close of trading on February 24, among the American stock markets, the U.S. Standard & Poor’s and Nasdaq The cumulative gains of the three major indexes of Grampus and Dow Jones this month were 3.88%, 4.11%, and 4.82% respectively; the Brazilian stock market in Sao Paulo rose by 3.08%. In European stock markets, the British FTSE100 index, the French CAC40 index, and the German DAX30 index rose by 2.04%, 2.03%, and 2.33% respectively. In terms of Asia-Pacific stock markets, the South Korea Component Index and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose slightly by 1.28% and 1.27%; China’s Taiwan Weighted Index and China’s Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 3.20% and 2.59% respectively.
During the same period, after the A-share market opened its doors to induce short selling in February, it rose steadily with little adjustment. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Component Index, Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Board Composite, and ChiNext Composite rose by 2.98% and 3.90 respectively. %, 3.98%, 3.62%. Based on the above-mentioned external market performance, the major A-share indexes rank in the middle and upper reaches of the world’s well-known stock markets.
Statistical data shows that as of the 24th, the ratio of stocks that have risen or fallen in the two cities since February is 2485:467, of which 40 stocks have increased by more than 100%, and all of them are new stocks that have just been listed; There are 19 stocks that have increased by more than 50% – if new shares are excluded, the highest increase in February should belong to Tianshan Shares on the Shenzhen Main Board. Looking at the decline list, Jikai Stock and Li Run Stock fell by more than 20%; there were 33 stocks that fell by more than 10%, mainly concentrated in stocks that were hotly speculated in the early stage and stocks that resumed trading to compensate for their losses after trading suspension.
“A-shares rose steadily in February, mainly affected by the following factors.” Qian Xiangjin, chief analyst of CITIC Securities, pointed out: due to holiday factors, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index in January 2017 (PMI) was 51.3%, only down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; economic data for January released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in January, a 2.5-year high, higher than the expected 2.4% and 2.1% of the previous value; PPI in January rose by 6.9% year-on-year, hitting a five-and-a-half-year high, which was also higher than the expected 6.5% and the previous value of 5.5% – the continued improvement of fundamentals is the cornerstone of the spring offensive.
Secondly, the central bank’s release of liquidity, the entry of pension funds into the market, and the loosening of stock index futures have all created a loose environment for the stock market.
Finally, at the National Securities and Futures Supervision Work Conference on February 10, Liu Shiyu, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that the registration system and the administrative approval system are not antagonistic, and ensure that companies with good quality can be listed in a timely manner, using 2 ~3 years to resolve the IPO barrier lake. Stock market policies are more standardized, which has a positive impact on the market and boosts investor confidence. ”
At the same time, Qian Xiangjin said that the reason why the market has maintained a steady upward trend despite many positive factors, without an exciting rise, is because the above-mentioned positive factors are also fermented with negative factors. For example , the central bank invested large-scale funds while raising interest rates in disguise, and management did not relax its control on real estate at all. In addition, in the context of loose liquidity, many senior executives and major shareholders ran away in a liquidation style, putting pressure on bulls’ confidence. The last point The U.S. stock market has hit new highs again and again, reflecting the positive trend of the U.S. economy. However, the improvement in the economy has strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes, so big funds are more cautious in their operations.
The violent short-term washout in March ushered in the main rise in March Waves
How will the market behave in March? A reporter from Chongqing Commercial Daily interviewed well-known experts to answer questions for investors.
Tang Hewen, general manager of the Nanping Sales Department of Galaxy Securities, pointed out that in the early stage Many market participants believe that mid-February should have entered a period of shock adjustment, but the fact is that the market unilaterally refused to adjust upward in February. After the internal adjustment time is compressed, the accumulated risks can only be released in space. This week, The market will face three major negative attacks: First, the “Big Mac Curse”. Baowu Steel will be listed next Monday. If the daily limit rises on the first day of listing, it may not necessarily impact the market. The problem is that if the daily limit is opened on Tuesday, it will have a negative impact on the capital side. It will be sudden. Second, there is great uncertainty in the official PMI data to be released on March 1, and the market may react in advance. Third, the market may have long forgotten the “Xinhua A50 delivery”, which has been It is an indirect factor that led to several sharp declines in 2007 and 2015. Combining these three aspects of analysis, we believe that there is a possibility of a violent market washout early next week, and we do not rule out the possibility that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will test 3044 points.
Once the market is quickly washed out, will the market situation in March completely become a mirror image? “It is absolutely impossible, March is definitely more promising than February. “Tang Hewen believes that at the end of last year, the forecast range for the market this year by major securities companies was generally 2,700 to 3,700 points, and they all believed that it would form an N-shape like 1998 to 1999 or 2003. In late February of 1998 to 1999 and 2003 There has been no adjustment, so if there is a rapid decline here, there is only one possibility of impact on the market outlook, that is, it is difficult to fall below 3,000 points this year. In other wordsIt is said that the market in March will be more popular than the market in February. Therefore, in terms of operation, we should pay attention to the sharp decline as a converter of market style. Small and medium-sized enterprises that have been in the doldrums for more than 4 months are very likely to regain their position as the main battlefield. “
Regarding the GEM, Zhang Cuixia, chief analyst of First Venture Securities, said that first, from a policy perspective, network security, Internet of Things, and big data are included in the planning of emerging industries in the “13th Five-Year Plan” strategy. , Internet, Internet + and some investment varieties mainly in the direction of software information services, showing very obvious strong promotion of favorable policies.
Second, from a technical point of view, starting from the current wave level structure Analysis and judgment, the most pessimistic judgment should also have a wave-level attack structure that reaches the first-line area of 3,000 points. If the five-wave attack structure successfully unfolds, it is a high probability event to break through 4,037 points in the future. Based on the GEM index’s large cycle wave The level structure is a complex four-wave consolidation structure, and the operation cycle of the four waves has been more than one year. Combining the daily and weekly wave level structure charts, the current daily level adjustment wave has the technical elements of a large cycle bottom. From Looking at the operation chart of the large-cycle structure, once the GEM index definitely launches the five-wave attack structure, it will inevitably break through the historical high of 4037 points.
Third, from an operational perspective, emerging industries will will usher in a greater development opportunity, and after sufficient risk release and adjustment, these varieties already have very good investment value and cost performance. Investors should continue to consider low prices, low levels, policy expectations, growth and other comprehensive aspects. Consider and seize investment opportunities at dips in the secondary market. Specifically, you can focus on gold-mining opportunities in sectors such as electronic information, network security, environmental protection, and medical health.” <!–
