Under the traditional peak season of “Silver Ten”, the propylene glycol market conditions are not satisfactory and continue to fall, with the drop reaching around 1,700 yuan/ton. This is still the case in the peak season, and the market conditions in the off-season It may be even more difficult to be optimistic.
As the weather turns colder, the propylene glycol market is also facing a wave of “cold wave”. Looking at the future, the market will be gloomy: propylene oxide is falling and cost support is lost; supply is sufficient and production is excess; demand is coming into the off-season, and transactions are not optimistic; in the long winter, this cold wave has swept through the propylene glycol market, and the market outlook may not be optimistic. .
Propylene oxide falls, cost support is lost
Entering November, the propylene oxide market is still difficult to recover. With the withdrawal of the Shandong environmental protection inspection team, the operating rate of propylene oxide factory equipment is expected to increase; however, as the weather turns colder, the market demand for terminal refrigerators and freezers will continue to be sluggish; at this point, the propylene oxide market may not be supported, and there is still Expectations continue to weaken. So far, the price trend of propylene glycol is closely related to the trend of propylene oxide, and the upward and downward trends are basically the same. In view of this situation, it is expected that under the weakening situation of raw material propylene oxide, propylene glycol may not be able to operate smoothly, and the downward trend will be obvious.
Sufficient supply, excess production
Recently, the propylene glycol parking devices have been restarted in late October and early November. In addition, the Wells parking device is expected to be restarted in November. Therefore, it is not difficult to see that in November Propylene glycol maintenance equipment will all return to normal, and the supply will be significantly higher than the supply in October. By then, the supply will be sufficient, competition will intensify, and the phenomenon of bidding for goods may become more and more intense.
With the off-season demand coming, the transaction volume is not optimistic
The overall operating load of domestic unsaturated resin factories is not high, maintaining between 50% and 60%. The demand is limited and it is difficult to increase the volume. In addition, the domestic unsaturated resin market will gradually decline in November. Entering the seasonal off-season of demand, market activity may gradually weaken. At this point, it is expected that unsaturated resin factories will not be able to increase their operating load, and may even reduce their operating load due to low demand and rising inventories. Therefore, the downstream demand for propylene glycol may be difficult to increase in the short term and will remain cold.
In summary, with no favorable conditions for both upstream and downstream, as well as supply and demand, the outlook for the propylene glycol market is worrying. Even though driven by low profits, factories that have not yet started maintenance are deliberately delaying their restarts to ease the pressure on market supply and demand and try their best to support prices, the negative factors are difficult to offset and may not be able to save the situation. In addition, the industry is more cautious about buying up and not buying down. , a cautious wait-and-see attitude spreads, trading is bound to be slow, and the market has become cold. However, there are still uncertain factors in the market: such as the trend of propylene glycol trade and export transactions. If the export trade volume of each manufacturer increases significantly, then the trade export volume may alleviate the pressure on the supply and demand side to a certain extent and save propylene glycol in times of crisis. Therefore, In the market outlook, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the export trade transactions of each manufacturer, analyze and understand the trade export data, respond to market changes randomly, and avoid risks.
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