The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the imminent start-up of Xin’an, the multiple impacts of the accident at Shin-Etsu’s Thailand single plant, and the trend of the silicone market
From October 18th to October 24th, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held. The domestic silicone market was mainly operating smoothly.Enterprise orders are mostly full in October, and most offers remain stable. The start-up of individual devices has declined overall compared with last week, mainly in Jiangxi Xinghuo The start-up is low, resulting in a decline in the overall supply level of the market.It is expected that Jiangxi Xinghuo’s start-up will maintain low load during the 19th National Congress, while Zhejiang Xin’an The start of technical transformation will also be delayed due to the convening of the 19th National Congress. In addition,Shin-Etsu Asia’s silicone monomer plant caught fire and suspended production will also affect the domestic monomer supply to a certain extent. Thereforethe short-term market supply shortage will not significantly improve. It is expected that the short-term organic silicon market price It will mainly maintain stability at a high level, and there will be upward momentum.
Enterprise Device
Shandong region: Both sets of Shandong Dongyue are fully operational, with about 70% of construction started; Shandong Luxi has started about 80% of construction; Shandong Jinling is running smoothly.
Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions: Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical is currently shut down and merging; Zhejiang Hesheng is operating normally; Hubei Xingfa’s technical transformation plan is being implemented, and equipment maintenance is mainly on a rotating basis , currently on and off.
Other regions: Jiangxi Lanxinghuo is operating at low load; Tangshan Sanyou plant is fully operational with two sets of equipment in full operation, and about 80% of the work has started; Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng is operating normally and has started work About 70%.
Price dynamics
DMC: Domestic DMC market prices remained high last week, and corporate offers were mostly stable. Affected by the convening of the 19th National Congress, domestic individual companies The average start-up level has declined, with only about 30% of Jiangxi Xinghuo’s start-up, supply is tight, mainly supplying early orders. Upstream metal silicon and methyl chloride have increased, and cost support is still strong, so DMC prices remain high. Scattered quotes in the domestic DMC market last week Acceptance is delivered at 30,500-31,000 yuan/ton of purified water including tax.
107Glue: Domestic 107 glue quotations were basically stable last week. Domestic manufacturing companies still mainly place early orders, with fewer new orders and more orders being negotiated. The operating level of downstream room-temperature glue companies has declined, and the transaction intensity of new 107 glue orders has weakened. Because there are many orders received in the early stage, many companies have no inventory pressure. The price of raw material DMC is still running at a high level, and the cost support is at a high level. Last week, a small amount of quotations in the domestic 107 rubber market were between 31,000 yuan and 31,500 yuan/ton.
Raw rubber: Last week, domestic raw rubber prices were mainly high and stable. Upstream DMC prices were running at high levels, and cost support was still strong, while downstream prices were mainly wait-and-see. There are few new orders, and most companies mainly maintain old customers and issue early outstanding orders, so there is basically no pressure on shipments. Last week, the scattered quotations in the domestic raw rubber market were 31,000-32,000 yuan/ton with packaging and tax included.
Mixed rubber: Last week, the domestic mixed rubber market was stable and weak, and prices fell slightly. The price of raw rubber remained high, and the cost The support is still there, but the market for downstream rubber products and cable industries is dominated by rigid demand, and actual demand has not increased significantly. The overall trading atmosphere of silicone rubber is dull, and shipments are average. The tight supply trend of mixed rubber has eased. Last week’s routine The new order price of hardness silicone rubber compound is 28,500-29,000 yuan/ton.
Silicone oil: Last week, domestic methyl silicone oil companies still maintained orders from old customers, and most of them suspended quotations. During the week, the overall equipment start-up of raw material DMC companies declined, and the supply of goods The tight situation has not been significantly alleviated, high prices have not yet fallen back, and the cost support for methyl silicone oil has not diminished. However, downstream demand is sluggish, and new orders are few. Prices for Dow Corning and Wacker A agents are still strong, and Dow Corning agents include tax The self-collection quotation is 36,000 yuan/ton, and the WACKER agent’s cash self-collection quotation is 35,000 yuan/ton.
Metal silicon: The domestic metal silicon market rose steadily last week. Due to the tightening of national environmental protection policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, graphite electrode companies increased prices. Dry season Coming soon, the power station will be severely short of water, and the prices of raw materials will continue to rise. The price of silicon in Yunnan has increased significantly. As of last Friday, the price of 421# Huangpu Port in Yunnan was 15,600-15,800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast
At present, most of the domestic silicone market is stable. However, due to the still fierce environmental protection trend, some companies started operations at a low level during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Domestic monomer plants There is generally insufficient construction. In addition, the fire and shutdown of Shin-Etsu Silicone will also affect the supply of Shin-Etsu Group’s silicone monomers to the Chinese market. Therefore, the price of the organic silicon market will run at a high level in the short term, and there is also upward momentum.
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